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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans to CIN 33 for 7 yards (20-E.Apple). Cincinnati challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.60 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model