4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

MIN
44.5%
DET
55.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.116 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.012 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
DET 24
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIN

Jonathan Bullard DE Out Biceps
Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Concussion
Garrett Bradbury C Questionable Back
Harrison Smith S Questionable Neck

DET

Kayode Awosika G Out Ankle
Derrick Barnes LB Out Knee
Chase Lucas CB Out Hamstring
Evan Brown G Doubtful Ankle
Will Harris CB Questionable Hip
Nate Sudfeld QB Questionable Illness
Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Illness
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
DET 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 TD DET (10:34) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:06 TD MIN (4:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 06:42 TD DET (6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 4-D.Chark for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – DET 13
  • Q3 05:48 TD DET (5:48) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – DET 20
  • Q3 02:24 TD MIN (2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DET 21
  • Q4 13:35 TD DET (13:35) 42-J.Jackson left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DET 27
  • Q4 10:52 FG MIN (10:52) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 16 – DET 28
  • Q4 04:10 FG DET (4:10) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 16 – DET 31
  • Q4 02:56 TD MIN (2:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 22 – DET 31
  • Q4 00:22 FG DET (:22) 17-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 23 – DET 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:14) 3-J.Fox punts 66 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-S.Daly. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 21 for 9 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 46 for no gain (1-J.Okudah, 44-M.Rodriguez).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 62%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 4-D.Chark.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

    (12:57) 14-R.Wright punts 35 yards to DET 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 60%

    (8:05) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to MIN 10, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (6:56) 14-R.Wright punts 64 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to MIN 48 for 35 yards (83-J.Nailor). MIN-29-K.Boyd was injured during the play.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (:15) 17-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:59) 14-R.Wright punts 60 yards to DET 11, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (83-J.Nailor).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:04) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 38-C.Moore. 38-C.Moore right end pushed ob at MIN 32 for 42 yards (5-J.Reagor). PENALTY on DET-33-Jar.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 32.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 90%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (10:52) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 90%

    (4:10) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (:22) 17-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.