Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 74

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:04) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 38-C.Moore. 38-C.Moore right end pushed ob at MIN 32 for 42 yards (5-J.Reagor). PENALTY on DET-33-Jar.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.73 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP