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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 29

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 17-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model