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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model