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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 30

Detroit Lions 31 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(:22) 17-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model