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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 78

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 3-J.Fox punts 66 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-S.Daly. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 21 for 9 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model