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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 14-R.Wright punts 60 yards to DET 11, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (83-J.Nailor).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model