4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
29.6%
SEA
70.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Geno Smith (SEA) +0.150 vs Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.175 EPA/dropback
  • CAR offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
SEA 27
Projected margin: SEA by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CAR

Myles Hartsfield S Questionable Ankle
Matt Ioannidis DT Questionable Calf
Cory Littleton LB Questionable Ankle
Xavier Woods S Questionable Knee

SEA

DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Ankle
DK Metcalf WR Questionable Hip
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Ankle
Ryan Neal S Questionable Knee
Will Dissly TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 30
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 FG CAR (7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 06:49 TD CAR (6:49) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 12-S.Smith for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – SEA 0
  • Q2 12:39 TD CAR (12:39) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – SEA 0
  • Q2 09:33 TD SEA (9:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – SEA 6
  • Q2 02:13 FG CAR (2:13) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 20 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:20 TD SEA (:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – SEA 13
  • Q3 10:03 FG SEA (10:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CAR 20 – SEA 17
  • Q4 07:02 TD CAR (7:02) (Shotgun) 20-R.Blackshear up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – SEA 17
  • Q4 02:00 FG CAR (2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 30 – SEA 17
  • Q4 00:27 TD SEA (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-M.Goodwin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-53-B.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 30 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to CAR 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-S.Smith to CAR 26 for 5 yards (25-T.Homer; 44-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:03) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (2:13) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (10:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to CAR 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-35-J.Blount.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (1:41) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman right guard to SEA 3 for 2 yards (30-M.Jackson, 56-J.Brooks).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Tremble (6-Q.Diggs) [10-U.Nwosu].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 28-K.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 26. CAR-40-B.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-S.Smith to CAR 35 for 11 yards (46-C.Tinker).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to CAR 24 for 25 yards (8-J.Horn; 38-M.Hartsfield).