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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to CAR 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-35-J.Blount.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model