Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 27

(6:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-S.Smith to CAR 35 for 11 yards (46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model