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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP