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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model