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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 27 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model