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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

BAL
47.5%
PIT
52.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.047 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.130 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BAL

Daryl Worley CB Out Hamstring
Lamar Jackson QB Doubtful Knee
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Toe
Del'Shawn Phillips LB Questionable Quadricep
Patrick Queen LB Questionable Thigh
Kristian Welch LB Questionable Concussion
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Knee

PIT

Malik Reed LB Questionable Back
Diontae Johnson WR Questionable Hip
T.J. Watt LB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16
–
PIT 14

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:50 FG BAL (4:50) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 02:36 TD BAL (2:36) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – PIT 0
  • Q1 00:17 TD PIT (:17) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – PIT 6
  • Q2 01:06 FG BAL (1:06) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – PIT 7
  • Q4 03:22 FG BAL (3:22) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 16 – PIT 7
  • Q4 02:34 TD PIT (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – PIT 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:39) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-S.Sims to PIT 23 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 25 for 9 yards (27-M.Allen).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:20) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to BAL 36 for 2 yards (57-M.Adams).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%

    (4:50) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 17 yards to PIT 48, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-27-M.Allen.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 66%

    (11:40) 2-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 37. 2-T.Huntley to PIT 36 for 1 yard (51-M.Jack).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (1:06) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 29%

    (10:58) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (7:26) 11-J.Stout punts 35 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:30) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-S.Sims to PIT 48 for 6 yards (14-K.Hamilton). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 42.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (11:19) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (3:22) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.