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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 2-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 37. 2-T.Huntley to PIT 36 for 1 yard (51-M.Jack).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.09 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model