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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model