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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model