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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 11-J.Stout punts 35 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP