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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 25 for 9 yards (27-M.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model