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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP