Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CHI defense: +0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CHI offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.114 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.033 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Justin Fields in place of Trevor Siemian)
- GB defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
GB
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:27 FG CHI (9:27) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. GB 0 – CHI 3
- Q1 03:10 TD CHI (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – CHI 9
- Q2 10:25 FG GB (10:25) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 3 – CHI 10
- Q2 06:15 TD CHI (6:15) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – CHI 16
- Q2 00:23 TD GB (:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – CHI 16
- Q3 01:53 FG CHI (1:53) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. GB 10 – CHI 19
- Q4 14:47 TD GB (14:47) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 19
- Q4 04:53 FG GB (4:53) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 20 – CHI 19
- Q4 02:00 TD GB (2:00) 9-C.Watson left end for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – CHI 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 88%
(9:27) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
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Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(5:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to CHI 30, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.
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Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(10:25) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%
(7:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 18-R.Cobb.
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Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 14Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%
(:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EPp(convert) 74%
(13:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CHI 27, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis. PENALTY on GB-38-I.Gaines, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 27.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:04) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-R.Cobb to GB 33 for 15 yards (57-J.Sanborn).
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Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(10:03) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to CHI 10, Center-56-J.Coco. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 28 for 18 yards (45-E.Wilson).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(1:53) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 88%
(11:44) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
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Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 14 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%
(4:53) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.