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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP