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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 22

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.07 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP