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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 17 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model