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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model