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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CHI 27, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis. PENALTY on GB-38-I.Gaines, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP