Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET defense: +0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NYG offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- Wind 21 mph
- Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.013 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- DET offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
DET
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:55 FG DET (7:55) 17-M.Badgley 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – NYG 0
- Q1 02:46 TD NYG (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – NYG 6
- Q2 04:44 TD DET (4:44) 30-Ja.Williams left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – NYG 6
- Q2 00:59 TD DET (:59) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – NYG 6
- Q3 10:14 TD DET (10:14) 30-Ja.Williams right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – NYG 6
- Q4 13:25 TD NYG (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-M.Breida left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – NYG 12
- Q4 06:13 TD DET (6:13) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – NYG 12
- Q4 04:26 TD NYG (4:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 80-R.James for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-A.Bryant]. DET 31 – NYG 18
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:06) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to DET 30, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%
(7:55) 17-M.Badgley 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 21%
(5:54) 31-M.Breida left end to DET 44 for 5 yards (5-D.Elliott).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 30%
(9:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to DET 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EPp(convert) 74%
(7:04) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-S.Daly. 80-R.James to NYG 27 for 7 yards (38-C.Moore).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(2:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 25 yards to DET 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 43%
(7:36) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right intended for 83-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 21. 31-K.Joseph to NYG 41 for 38 yards (80-R.James).
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Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 49%
(6:28) 3-J.Fox punts 31 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-51-J.Woods.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 21%
(3:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DET 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 57%
(1:30) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to NYG 33, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end pushed ob at DET 43 for 15 yards (5-D.Elliott).
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Q4 DET 4th & 16 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%
(8:52) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.