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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 45

New York Giants 6 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to DET 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP