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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 31-M.Breida left end to DET 44 for 5 yards (5-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.05 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model