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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 84

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to NYG 33, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP