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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 38

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 3-J.Fox punts 31 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-51-J.Woods.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP