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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 40

New York Giants 6 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right intended for 83-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 21. 31-K.Joseph to NYG 41 for 38 yards (80-R.James).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model