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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 57

New York Giants 6 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 25 yards to DET 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.60 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model