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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 09:30 Allianz Arena, Munich DE ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SEA
56.8%
TB
43.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • SEA offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA crossing 9 time zone(s)
  • TB offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
TB 22
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SEA

Cullen Gillaspia LB Out Knee
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Groin

TB

Russell Gage WR Out Hamstring
Luke Goedeke G Out Foot
J.J. Russell LB Out Hamstring
Cameron Brate TE Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 16
–
TB 21

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:48 TD TB (13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 6-J.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 04:33 TD TB (4:33) (No Huddle) 7-L.Fournette right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – TB 13
  • Q3 12:10 FG SEA (12:10) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – TB 14
  • Q4 10:53 TD TB (10:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – TB 20
  • Q4 08:24 TD SEA (8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – TB 21
  • Q4 04:04 TD SEA (4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White]. SEA 15 – TB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:13) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to SEA 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 71%

    (8:58) 3-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

    (5:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-44-N.Bellore.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to TB 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to TB 4, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to SEA 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to TB 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-83-D.Young.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 62%

    (5:43) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to TB 28 for 10 yards (35-J.Dean).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White].