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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to TB 4, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model