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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to TB 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-83-D.Young.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model