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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-44-N.Bellore.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model