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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White].

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.49 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model