4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NE
52.0%
NYJ
48.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Zach Wilson (NYJ): -0.164 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): +0.109 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NE

David Andrews C Out Concussion
Christian Barmore DT Out Knee
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Calf
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Matt Judon LB Questionable Back
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Shoulder
Josh Uche LB Questionable Hamstring
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Corey Davis WR Out Knee
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder
Jermaine Johnson DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 22
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:17 FG NYJ (8:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NE 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 00:04 FG NE (:04) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 12:04 TD NYJ (12:04) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 00:05 FG NE (:05) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 12:12 TD NE (12:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 05:27 FG NE (5:27) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 16 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 02:43 FG NE (2:43) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 19 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 10:39 FG NE (10:39) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 22 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 01:56 TD NYJ (1:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – NYJ 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:11) 7-B.Mann punts 22 yards to NYJ 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 38%

    (12:49) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (8:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (:04) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:00) 7-B.Mann punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NE-35-P.Strong, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 11 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (12:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (9:34) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%

    (5:27) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:03) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to NE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NYJ 27 for 32 yards (72-M.Clemons).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (2:43) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%

    (:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%

    (10:39) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Conklin.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to NYJ 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:25) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 30 for no gain (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%

    (3:42) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to NYJ 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.