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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 5

New England Patriots 6 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model