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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 10

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 10, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model