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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 7-B.Mann punts 22 yards to NYJ 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model