4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 27

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.00 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model