4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 31

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model