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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 67

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 7-B.Mann punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NE-35-P.Strong, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 11 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP