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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

IND
28.4%
TEN
71.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than IND
  • Matt Ryan (IND): -0.032 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 18
–
TEN 26
Projected margin: TEN by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

IND

JoJo Domann LB Out Abdomen
Kwity Paye DE Out Ankle
Keke Coutee WR Out Concussion
Shaquille Leonard LB Out Concussion

TEN

Tory Carter FB Out Neck
Zach Cunningham LB Out Elbow
Nate Davis G Out Foot
Joseph Jones LB Out Knee
Kyle Philips WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 10
–
TEN 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:07 FG TEN (4:07) 14-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. IND 0 – TEN 3
  • Q2 09:36 TD TEN (9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – TEN 9
  • Q2 02:00 FG TEN (2:00) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. IND 0 – TEN 13
  • Q3 04:12 TD IND (4:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 13
  • Q4 13:51 FG TEN (13:51) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. IND 7 – TEN 16
  • Q4 08:36 FG IND (8:36) 7-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 10 – TEN 16
  • Q4 04:52 FG TEN (4:52) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. IND 10 – TEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 33 for 11 yards (86-K.Rader, 20-L.Johnson).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:42) 6-M.Haack punts 32 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (4:07) 14-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%

    (1:17) 6-M.Haack punts 29 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to IND 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 23 for 12 yards (40-D.Hilliard).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:25) 6-M.Haack punts 27 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:59) 6-M.Haack punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to IND 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 42 for 24 yards (29-J.Thompson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 70%

    (7:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to TEN 20 for 14 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (13:51) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:36) 6-M.Haack punts 28 yards to TEN 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-81-M.Alie-Cox.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%

    (8:36) 7-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 78%

    (4:52) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.