Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(13:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to IND 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 23 for 12 yards (40-D.Hilliard).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model