4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 6-M.Haack punts 29 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model