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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-M.Haack punts 27 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.56 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model